摘 要： 就像亚当·斯密在创作《国富论》之前曾经写作《道德情操论》为其开创现代经济学奠定哲学基础一样，凯恩斯在创作《通论》之前也曾经写作《概率论》为其开创现代宏观经济学奠定哲学基础。就像《道德情操论》是打开《国富论》当中诸多疑问的一把钥匙一样，《概率论》也是打开《通论》当中重重谜团的一把钥匙。 凯恩斯在《概率论》中发展了一种新概率论，即逻辑概率理论，并借此创立了一种新理性观，即信念理性。凯恩斯经济学革命的实质乃是用信念理性假设替代了新古典经济学的完全理性假设，并在此基础上发动了一场针对新古典经济学的革命，创立了现代宏观经济学。
关键词： 《概率论》； 信念理性假设； 《通论》； 凯恩斯革命
Rational Belief and New Interpretation of Keynesian Revolution: Research based on Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability
ZHANG Xue-kui
Abstact: In A Treatise on Probability, Keynes has developed a logical theory of probability and created a new conception of reason, i.e. rational belief. Essentially, Keynesian revolution employs the rational belief assumption as a substitute for the complete rationality assumption to fight against new classical economics and makes way for modern macroeconomics.
Key word: A Treatise on Probability; rational belief; the General Theory; Keynesian revolution
